Firstly, unless the downfall of Kim Jong-un, North Korea may be monarchy state in twenty or thirty more years except Kim Jong-un got disease, assassinate or coup. In fact, several countries in Asia are capable of making nuclear weapons, especially the countries that are able to build nuclear power plants by themselves. International community does not stop North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons, because it is likely to stimulate these countries’ some groups who support nuclear weapons, for example, Japan and South Korea have the capacity completely, especially Japan. It is estimated that if Japan possesses nuclear weapons, China will vigorously develop nuclear weapons, and then South Korea will also strive to develop. In short, there is the risk of occurrence of nuclear arms race.
Kim Jong-un Blake cloth man, photo from http://theconversation.com/why-dont-we-bomb-north-korea-52947
At present, South Korea is in the trap of maintaining security situation without right of self-defense of nuclear weapons. Although the risks of North Korea’s nuclear weapons increase every day, South Korea could now do nothing but to restart the degree of psychological warfare for North Korea. North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons is changing the military balance of Korean Peninsula, and South Korea’s advantage of a large number of conventional weapons is likely to become worthless in the face of nuclear weapons, this is also the main reason of domestic South Korea requiring nuclear weapons.
North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons could not only cause that Japan and South Korea two countries follow to agitate the research and development of nuclear weapons, and cause China to become the only country surrounded by nuclear nations. North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons could also cause that the U.S. uses force in North Korea, or takes other policies such as regime change and blocking North Korea, etc., this will lead to severe instability in Northeast Asia and affect China’s undertaking of economic construction at ease.
Although North Korea claims to improve nuclear deterrent force, which can internally strengthen solidarity, nuclear weapons may not definitely ensure national security, Pakistan and Israel are the examples. On the contrary, nuclear weapons not only can’t be used tactically, and poor management will hurt itself instead. If North Korea wants to develop effective nuclear deterrent, it still needs to continue to carry out nuclear missile tests and research & development of nuclear weapons, which needs huge capital and human input, this could only further drag down the original bad condition of economy.
If North Korea uses nuclear test as means of negotiation to get more economic and political interests, then it is obviously engaging in ‘nuclear blackmail’. Under the condition of various countries in the world encountering financial crisis, the move of North Korea could only provoke greater anger and cause itself to be further isolated from international society.
North Korea’s purpose of achieving bilateral talks between the U.S. and North Korea with nuclear threat is unlikely to succeed. The U.S. government has absorbed experience of the previous government, and the governments of South Korea and Japan also show an unyielding attitude. Obviously, the United States, South Korea and Japan three countries will not weakly compensate for North Korea who possesses nuclear weapons this time, and of course, they will also not admit North Korea’s status of possessing nuclear weapons. The U.S. government also agrees that the Six-Party Talks is currently the best framework to solve North Korea nuclear issue.